Global food security remains under pressure in 2026 as higher input costs, supply chain disruptions, climate risks and persistent food price pressures continue to affect vulnerable populations. While global food supplies remain broadly adequate, the latest World Bank assessment shows that the food and nutrition security outlook remains fragile.
The World Bank’s latest Food Security Update, based on data through June 22, 2026, highlights several factors that could influence food availability and affordability in the months ahead. Fertilizer prices have risen significantly, cereal production is expected to decline from record 2025 levels, and the potential emergence of El Niño could create additional risks for agricultural production in several regions.
The situation is particularly important for low-income countries and communities where households spend a large proportion of their income on food.
World Bank Food Security Update 2026
According to the World Bank, global food supplies remain broadly adequate, but higher costs and disruptions across supply chains continue to place pressure on food prices.
Production of major cereals is also expected to decline from the record levels recorded in 2025.
The latest update shows that global food and nutrition security remains vulnerable to a combination of economic, environmental and geopolitical pressures.
The World Bank tracks food security through information on agricultural prices, cereal prices, export prices, domestic food inflation, fertilizer markets and other indicators.
The organisation’s latest update was published in June 2026 and provides an overview of developments affecting global food security.
Fertilizer Prices Rise in 2026
One of the major concerns highlighted by the World Bank is the increase in fertilizer prices.
During the first five months of 2026, fertilizer prices increased by 35 percent compared with the same period in 2025.
Although fertilizer prices had started to ease in the weeks preceding the World Bank’s June update, the market had not fully stabilized.
This is important because fertilizer costs directly affect farmers’ production decisions.
When fertilizer becomes more expensive, farmers may reduce the amount they apply to their crops. Lower fertilizer application can potentially affect crop yields, particularly in agricultural systems where farmers depend heavily on purchased inputs.
The World Bank notes that the effects of reduced fertilizer application earlier in the agricultural season may only become visible later through harvest outcomes.
This creates another layer of uncertainty for food markets.
If harvests are weaker than expected, countries that depend heavily on agricultural imports could face additional pressure on food prices and food availability.
El Niño Creates Additional Food Security Risks
Climate conditions are another major concern.
The World Bank’s June 2026 update indicates a 61 to 87 percent probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and persisting into 2027.
El Niño can influence rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world, creating difficult conditions for agriculture in some regions.
According to the World Bank, if the projected El Niño scenario materializes, rice production could decline by 20 to 50 percent in affected regions.
The regions identified as particularly exposed include:
- South Asia
- Southern Africa
- Parts of East Asia
These risks are particularly concerning for countries that already face high levels of food insecurity.
Agricultural disruptions can affect both farmers and consumers. Reduced production can lower farmers’ incomes while simultaneously putting upward pressure on food prices.
Food Prices Show Mixed Movements
The World Bank’s latest data shows that international food-related price indicators have moved in different directions.
Since the previous update:
- The agricultural price index decreased by 6 percent.
- The cereal price index decreased by 8 percent.
- The export price index decreased by 7 percent.
Within the cereal market, maize and wheat contributed significantly to the decline.
Maize prices closed 15 percent lower, while wheat prices closed 13 percent lower.
Rice moved in the opposite direction, with prices closing 9 percent higher.
This demonstrates that food markets are not moving uniformly.
Different crops can experience very different price conditions depending on production, demand, trade, weather and supply conditions.
Maize, Wheat and Rice Prices Compared With 2020
Although some food prices have declined recently, prices remain above their January 2020 levels.
According to the World Bank’s June 2026 update:
- Maize prices were 6 percent higher than in January 2020.
- Wheat prices were 4 percent higher than in January 2020.
- Rice prices were 3 percent higher than in January 2020.
The figures highlight the continuing pressure faced by consumers even when individual food commodities experience short-term price declines.
For households already struggling with low incomes, relatively small changes in food prices can have significant consequences.
Food Inflation Remains a Concern
Domestic food price inflation remained moderately high between April and May 2026.
The World Bank’s data showed a deterioration in low-income countries during this period.
The share of low-income countries experiencing food inflation above 5 percent increased from 40.0 percent to 45.0 percent.
This means nearly half of the low-income countries included in the relevant data were experiencing food inflation above the 5 percent threshold.
At the same time, conditions improved in several other income groups.
The share of lower-middle-income countries with food inflation above 5 percent decreased from 40.8 percent to 36.7 percent.
For upper-middle-income countries, the share declined from 34.0 percent to 29.8 percent.
Among high-income countries, the proportion decreased from 6.8 percent to 5.1 percent.
The differences show that food inflation is affecting economies in different ways.
Africa Continues to Face Uneven Food Inflation
The World Bank reports that food inflation pressures increased in some regions while easing in others.
Food inflation increased in:
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- South Asia
It eased in:
- Europe and Central Asia
Across Africa, the situation remained uneven.
However, persistently high food inflation continued in parts of Eastern and Southern Africa.
This is particularly significant because food represents a substantial portion of household expenditure in many developing economies.
When food prices rise faster than household incomes, families may have to reduce spending on other necessities such as education, healthcare, transportation and housing.
Real Food Prices Remain Important
The World Bank also looks at real food prices, which compare food price movements with overall inflation.
In the latest quarterly data, real food prices outpaced headline inflation in approximately 14 percent of the 169 countries analyzed.
The situation was particularly notable among lower-middle-income countries.
Approximately one in six lower-middle-income countries recorded positive real food inflation.
This matters because even when overall inflation begins to moderate, food may remain relatively expensive.
For households, what matters is not simply whether inflation is falling but whether essential goods are becoming more affordable relative to their incomes.
What Is Food Security?
Food security exists when people have reliable access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food needed to maintain an active and healthy life.
Food security is influenced by several interconnected factors.
Food Availability
There must be sufficient food available through domestic production, imports, stocks and other sources.
Food Access
People must have the economic and physical ability to obtain food.
A country can have sufficient food supplies while some households remain food insecure because they cannot afford available food.
Food Utilization
People need access to nutritious food, clean water, sanitation and healthcare so that their bodies can properly use the nutrients they consume.
Stability
Food availability and access need to remain stable over time.
Conflict, climate shocks, economic crises and sudden price increases can threaten this stability.
Major Causes of Food Insecurity
Food insecurity rarely has one single cause.
It is usually the result of several factors interacting with each other.
Climate Change
Extreme weather events can damage crops, livestock and agricultural infrastructure.
Droughts, floods, heatwaves and changing rainfall patterns can reduce agricultural productivity.
The potential El Niño conditions highlighted by the World Bank demonstrate how climate variability can become a food security concern.
High Input Costs
Farmers depend on inputs such as fertilizer, seeds, fuel and agricultural equipment.
When these costs increase, production becomes more expensive.
The 35 percent year-on-year increase in fertilizer prices during the first five months of 2026 illustrates the challenge.
Conflict and Instability
Conflict can disrupt agricultural production, trade routes, markets and access to food.
It can also force farmers from their land and displace communities.
Poverty
Low-income households are particularly vulnerable to food price increases.
Even modest price increases can make nutritious diets unaffordable for families already living with limited financial resources.
Supply Chain Disruptions
Food often moves through complex international and domestic supply chains.
Disruptions affecting transportation, ports, fuel or trade can increase the cost of getting food from producers to consumers.
How the World Bank Is Responding to Food Insecurity
The World Bank works with governments and development partners on programmes designed to strengthen food systems, agricultural productivity, livelihoods and resilience.
Its food security work includes supporting investments that can help countries respond to immediate food crises while also strengthening agricultural systems for the future.
The organisation highlights the importance of combining emergency responses with longer-term investments.
These can include:
- Supporting farmers
- Improving agricultural productivity
- Strengthening food systems
- Improving market access
- Supporting rural jobs
- Increasing resilience to climate shocks
- Improving infrastructure
- Strengthening social protection
- Supporting nutrition
- Promoting sustainable agriculture
AgriConnect and Food Security
The World Bank is also promoting food security and jobs through its AgriConnect initiative.
The initiative is intended to support agricultural development while helping create economic opportunities.
Agriculture is particularly important in developing economies because it can contribute simultaneously to:
- Food production
- Employment
- Household income
- Rural development
- Export earnings
- Poverty reduction
Strengthening agricultural systems can therefore have benefits beyond food availability.
Technology and Agricultural Transformation
Technology can also play an increasingly important role in improving food security.
Digital tools can help farmers access information about:
- Weather
- Market prices
- Agricultural practices
- Crop management
- Financial services
- Supply chains
Data and technology can also help governments and development organisations monitor food security conditions and identify areas where support is needed.
The growth of climate-smart agriculture and digital agriculture could become increasingly important as countries deal with changing weather conditions and resource constraints.
The Importance of Climate-Resilient Agriculture
Climate-resilient agriculture focuses on helping farmers continue producing food despite changing environmental conditions.
Potential approaches include:
- Drought-resistant crops
- Improved irrigation
- Better soil management
- Water conservation
- Diversification of crops
- Improved agricultural forecasting
- Sustainable land management
- Climate information services
Such approaches can help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate shocks.
Why Food Security Matters for Jobs
Food security is closely connected to employment.
Agriculture remains an important source of livelihoods in many developing countries.
When agricultural production falls, farmers can lose income.
Businesses involved in food processing, transportation, storage and retail can also be affected.
This means food security policies can simultaneously become economic development policies.
Investments in agricultural value chains can create opportunities in:
- Farming
- Food processing
- Logistics
- Manufacturing
- Retail
- Technology
- Financial services
- Agribusiness
Strengthening these value chains can help create jobs while improving food availability.
World Bank Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard
The World Bank also highlights the Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard as an important tool for responding to the global food security crisis.
The dashboard brings together information that can help decision-makers understand developments in food and nutrition security.
Access to timely data is essential because food security conditions can change rapidly.
Governments, development organisations and researchers can use data to identify emerging risks and inform responses.
What the Latest Update Means for Developing Countries
The June 2026 World Bank update highlights an important reality: global food supplies can remain broadly adequate while food insecurity continues to affect vulnerable communities.
Food security is not only about how much food exists globally.
It is also about whether people can afford and physically access nutritious food.
Higher fertilizer prices, climate risks and food inflation can therefore have significant effects even when global supplies remain sufficient.
For developing countries, strengthening domestic agricultural production and improving resilience can help reduce exposure to external shocks.
What Can Be Done to Improve Food Security?
There is no single solution to global food insecurity.
A comprehensive approach can involve several areas.
Increase Agricultural Productivity
Farmers need access to appropriate technologies, inputs, financing, information and markets.
Strengthen Rural Infrastructure
Roads, storage facilities, irrigation systems and electricity can help farmers connect to markets and reduce post-harvest losses.
Improve Access to Finance
Smallholder farmers may struggle to access affordable credit.
Appropriate financial products can help farmers invest in equipment, inputs and productivity improvements.
Expand Social Protection
Social protection programmes can help vulnerable households maintain access to food during economic or environmental shocks.
Invest in Climate Resilience
Agricultural systems need to adapt to changing weather patterns.
Improve Food Supply Chains
Efficient storage, transportation and distribution systems can help reduce waste and keep food moving from producers to consumers.
Strengthen International Cooperation
Food security challenges often cross national borders.
International cooperation can help countries respond to market disruptions, climate shocks and humanitarian emergencies.
Food Security and the Future
The global food security outlook will continue to depend on developments in agriculture, climate, markets and household incomes.
The World Bank’s latest assessment demonstrates why monitoring food prices and agricultural conditions remains important.
The potential effects of El Niño, fertilizer market pressures and food inflation could create additional challenges for vulnerable countries.
At the same time, investments in agriculture, infrastructure, climate resilience, technology and jobs can create opportunities to strengthen food systems over the long term.
The challenge is therefore not simply to produce more food.
Countries also need food systems that are affordable, resilient, sustainable and accessible.
Final Thoughts
The World Bank’s June 2026 Food Security Update shows that global food and nutrition security remains fragile despite broadly adequate global food supplies.
Fertilizer prices increased by 35 percent during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, while the possibility of El Niño continuing into 2027 presents additional agricultural risks. In a potential El Niño scenario, rice production could fall significantly in affected regions, with Southern Africa, South Asia and parts of East Asia among the areas exposed.
Food prices have also moved unevenly. Maize and wheat prices declined in the latest period, while rice prices increased. Meanwhile, food inflation remained a significant concern in many developing economies, particularly parts of Eastern and Southern Africa.
The World Bank’s response emphasizes the importance of combining immediate food security measures with longer-term investments in agriculture, jobs, resilience and food systems.
Initiatives such as AgriConnect, together with data tools such as the Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard, form part of efforts to better understand and respond to food insecurity.
Ultimately, improving global food security will require cooperation between governments, farmers, development organisations, businesses, researchers and communities. Strengthening agricultural systems while creating jobs and building resilience to climate and economic shocks will remain essential to ensuring that people have reliable access to nutritious food.
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